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Le Havre vs Brest

Fri 04 Sep 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 3 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Le Havre win: 39.5%

Draw: 28.0%

Brest win: 32.5%

Predicted: Le Havre

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 50.3%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 45.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.66

More corners: Le Havre (52.1% home / 47.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brest

Yes

Probability Brest wins or draws: 63.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brest win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (63.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.